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DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/08 11:52
Grains Mixed at Midday
Mixed slow trade is seen at midday with noted position squaring.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 60. The
interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 38 lower. Energies are
higher with crude up $1. Cattle and hogs are higher. Precious metals are around
unchanged.
GENERAL COMMENTS
CORN
Corn trade is steady to a penny lower at midday. Profit-taking by market
longs should keep the trade mixed ahead of the September USDA Supply and Demand
numbers due for release on Friday morning. The outside market influence is
friendly with crude higher and the dollar lower. Corn maturity remains ahead of
normal with some acceleration which produces a bias of worse yields. Most yield
reports continue to favor the lower than expected category. This is has been
behind our strength. Futures have now rallied $1.25 from the low printed at the
end of June. Corn condition was reduced 1 percentage point to 69 percent good
to excellent, which was in line with expectations. On the December chart,
support is down at $4.50 and resistance is up at $4.69-71, trade may stay slow
all day.
SOYBEANS
Soybean trade is steady to 3 higher, meal is steady to $0.80 higher and bean
oil is 2 to 7 lower. The very mixed trade gives the appearance that no one
really wants to do much today. On the November chart, support is down at
$10.21-22 which is where we find both the 10- and 20-day moving averages.
Resistance is now limited just above the market. The fact that we have not
accelerated to the upside after printing new highs is a minor victor for the
bulls up to midday. On the weekly report, soybeans dropping leaves were
reported at 19 percent versus 7 percent a year ago and the 15 percent five-year
average. Soybean condition was unchanged at 64 percent good to excellent which
has limited upside. We should not be surprised to see light short-covering into
the close if we keep November above $10.50.
WHEAT
Wheat trade is 3 to 9 lower at midday. Chicago is seeing pressure versus
Kansas City and Minneapolis. Chicago is the selling leg of spread activity due
to expectations of greater export interest in hard red and hard spring wheat.
On the December Chicago chart, resistance will be up at yesterday's high of
$7.48 and support is down at $7.08 which is the 20-day moving averages. Wheat
seems to want to stay range bound, but as long as the row crops move higher the
downside in wheat is limited.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Commodity Trading Advisor.
(AG)
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